A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
